The Power of “Presumed Futures”

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(A photo from our 2005 Summer Leadership Institute.)

Barbara Bleyaert, Ed.D.
Assistant Professor
University of Toledo
    

     High school reform is back on the political docket; in fact, it “has risen to the top of the nation’s education agenda” (Hendrie, 2005, p. 1). The recent attention has been fueled, at least in part, by the $1 billion investment of Bill and Melinda Gates in redesigning the American high school, particularly from large bureaucratic organizations to small personalized learning environments. At first glance, the Gates-funded high school initiatives appear to focus on school size. At the heart of these initiatives, however, is the push to redefine the “three Rs” of schooling essential for success: an insistence on rigor (in the curriculum for all students), relevance (to students’ lives outside the classroom), and relationships (of genuine quality between students and the adults in schools). A study conducted recently in Washtenaw County, Michigan, of high school graduates one year and five years following their graduation from high school lends support to, and links in an interesting way, at least two of the three new “Rs,” rigor and relationships.

     To learn about the post-high school experience of high school graduates, a regional education agency in Michigan conducted a follow-up census of graduates from the classes of 2002 and 1998. Superintendents in ten local districts served by the agency were curious about the postsecondary outcomes of graduates. While an extensive annual survey of exiting seniors in the twelve comprehensive high schools in the county consistently revealed that 87% of graduates intended to enroll in college within two years, school officials could only guess how many graduates actually enrolled, or ever completed a program or degree.

     The follow-up census was administered by a private research firm using both mail and telephone contacts, and yielded responses from 864 graduates from the class of 1998 (41%) and 1469 graduates (53%) from the class of 2002. An extensive analysis of the census results linked two variables over which educators have control, regardless of who their students are:

1) academic organization as represented by the curricular options the school offers, and

2) social organization as represented by the quality of relationships between students and adults at the school.

     The annual senior exit survey provided extensive information on both school variables from the students’ perspective. The follow-up survey provided information on the curricular program graduates report they followed during high school, as well as extensive information on postsecondary outcomes related to the pursuit and/or acquisition of both education and financial capital.

     This analysis suggests there is a relationship between the rigor of the curricular program students follow in high school and their relationships with teachers, and outcomes beyond graduation. It also proposes an important theory about why rigor and relationship may have long-term implications for students.

   The theoretical framework that guided this study built upon the conceptual model presented by Lee and Burkham (2003), which identified “three foundational elements” of high school organization that appear to have a significant influence on high school students: a) structures (size and sector); b) academic organization (curricular options or programs of study); and c) social organization (“relationships between students and teachers”) (p. 355).

     Lee and Burkham’s research suggested that school size, an academic curriculum limited only to a college preparatory track, and the quality of relationships between students and teachers influence students’ decisions to remain in school until graduation or to drop out.

     This study hypothesized that these same foundational elements of high school organization are related to a successful transition into adulthood for students who actually complete high school. It also suggests a relationship to their ability to pursue further education and/or to acquire financial capital following graduation.

     In particular, the researcher sought to discover if the type of high school curriculum students followed and the quality of relationships between students and their teachers and counselors, including support from adults in planning for the future, are related to the post-high school outcomes of graduates. Like Lee and Burkham, the researcher believes that factors within the control of high school policy-makers and staff members influence students’ futures, especially students at risk.

     An important element of the theoretical construct suggested by this study is that educators construct a “presumed future” for their high school students, and communicate that presumed future---implicitly and often unintentionally---through the academic and social organization of the school they adopt or maintain.

     Though perhaps never directly stated in so many words, educators send powerful messages to their students about the future they presume will be theirs through the very organizational structures they perpetuate. In particular, the “presumed future” adults construct for their students is communicated quite clearly through the school’s academic organization (curricular “tracks” or options such as college preparatory, career or vocational, general studies).

     Oakes (1985) found that high school students’ attitudes most “highly related to track level were students’ views of themselves and their educational plans for the future,” and that “high-track students had substantially higher educational aspirations than other students. Students in the low-track classes had the lowest expectations for their educational futures” (p. 143). By their very nature, the curricular program in which students find themselves sets them on an “educational trajectory” difficult to alter (Richardson, 2000, p. 311).

     According to Cohen (2000), “differential expectations become self-fulfilling prophecies, producing differential effort, participation, and performance on the part of high-ranking and low-ranking students” (p. 272).

       Presumed futures may also be communicated through the social organization of the school, particularly through the quality of the relationship between students and their teachers and counselors, including assistance which adults provide, or fail to provide, students in planning for their futures. Data gathered through both the county Senior Exit Survey and the graduate follow-up study provided an opportunity to examine the potential relationship between adults’ “presumed futures” for their students and students’ “realized futures” after graduation.

   For both classes (1998, 2002), this study found a significant relationship (p≤.01) between the reported curricular program followed during high school and the type of postsecondary education graduates pursued following high school. Graduates who reported having followed a college preparatory curriculum were more likely to enroll in a four-year college and less likely to enter a career-technical program or enroll in a community college. This trend has been well-documented (Lee & Frank, 1990; Dornbusch, Glasgow & Lin, 1996; Richardson, 2000; NCHSSY, 2001).

    Enrollment patterns matter; community college enrollees, for example, are much less likely to complete a degree or postsecondary program than are enrollees in four-year colleges (Lee & Frank, 1990). Community college enrollees who do complete a program were found to have planned for college early in their high school careers and to share the same characteristics of students who immediately enter a four-year college. One of those characteristics is “better academic preparation” (Lee & Frank, 1990, p. 190.)

   The study in this county is especially important because of the demographic and economic diversity of the county. The ten public school districts within the county can be organized into four quite distinct “regions” that include a central city (Ann Arbor) housing a major university (The University of Michigan), and rural districts, urban blue-collar districts and affluent suburban districts that surround Ann Arbor.

   A regional analysis of the follow-up census data showed clearly that graduates from both the rural and urban high schools were less likely to enroll in and/or complete postsecondary programs, especially at four-year colleges, and reported lower annual salaries five years after graduation than graduates from the other two regions. It is important to note that the percent of graduates who reported having followed a general studies curriculum in both the rural and urban regions was as much as 20 points higher than in the other two regions.

   These findings are especially troubling, given the high percentage of poor and minority students in these regions. Richardson (2000) has documented the overrepresentation and misassignment of poor and minority students to lower “tracks” based, in part, on the “microeconomic decisions made by teachers” that influence students’ decisions to follow a particular curriculum (p. 312).

   Supporting this researcher’s theory that adults in schools create “presumed futures” for their students, educators may see poor and minority students, whether from a rural or urban setting, as less likely to attend a four-year college. They engage in the practice of “sorting young people into those we expect to go to college and the ‘rest’” (NCHSSY, 2001, p. 27).

  Outcomes of graduates from both the rural and urban districts were strikingly similar, despite the fact that the rural districts are not demographically diverse (averaging 91% Caucasian), and the urban districts are quite diverse (averaging 54% Caucasian, 33% African American.)

  Ironically, in an era when all students are being held to common standards measured on high-stakes tests, it seems clear that the expectations educators may hold for students, and the futures they presume for them, may reflect old notions about which social class will inevitably go on to college—and which will continue to clean the rooms in the Holiday Inn or wipe down the cars in the carwash.

  In terms of acquiring financial stability after graduation, two findings related to curricular program followed during high school and postsecondary outcomes are worth noting for the class of 2002 graduates: 1) 100% of graduates who reported following a career-technical curriculum during high school also reported that their jobs after high school provided benefits; and 2) 76.92% of graduates who reported following a general studies curriculum also reported they were still living at home with their parents 15 – 18 months after graduation, a much higher percentage than graduates who had followed the other two curricular tracks.

  It appears, based on these results, that the career and technical curriculum not only suggested an educational and career trajectory for students but also equipped them with skills required to secure jobs that provided benefits. On the other hand, students who follow a general studies curriculum may neither attend college nor acquire the skills they need to secure jobs that enable financial independence.

  While this study adds to the argument that an academically rigorous curriculum for all students is imperative for future success, it further documents a link between the curricular program students follow and the relationships between students and their teachers. The researcher theorized that the “presumed futures” teachers create for their students are also communicated through the social organization of the school, specifically, through the quality of student-teacher relationships. The researcher correlated the results from items related to student-teacher relationships from the 2002 senior exit survey with curricular program followed during high school and found a significant result (rs= -.18, p≤.01).

  Students enrolled in a college preparatory curriculum were more likely to experience fewer negative relationships with teachers. These findings reflect the research of Dornbusch and Associates (1996) who found that students following a college preparatory curriculum “report more positive treatment by their teachers than do students from either the general or vocational track” (p. 420).

  Students enrolled in the less academic curricular programs reported less “attention, concern, or effort” from their teachers (p. 420). Conversely, Lee and Burkham (2003) reported positive outcomes even for less-engaged students when they have access to and support from teachers for learning that is both challenging and worthwhile.

   It seems apparent that positive or negative teacher relationships may be a by-product of the curricular program that students follow, with those who follow a college-prep track coming out as the winners.

    Inevitably, the most significant results of this study led the researcher back to curricular program of study. Through the academic organization of the high school, adults “accidentally” communicate not only the presumed futures they have created for their students, but also a career plan.

     In fact, the correlation between curricular track followed and graduates’ perception that they had a career plan in high school was significant; graduates who reported that they did not have a career plan in high school were more likely to be enrolled in a two-year college (rs= .13, p≤.01) while graduates who reported that they had a career plan in high school were more likely to be enrolled in a four-year college (rs= -.09, p≤.05).

    By its very nature, the college preparatory and career technical curricula suggest to students enrolled in them that they have a future, a career plan, a “next step” beyond high school. A general studies curriculum, on the other hand, communicates little to students enrolled in it about a particular direction, either toward the world of work or postsecondary education; it may, instead, more effectively communicate to students adults’ lack of confidence in their ability to succeed either in a technical career or in college.

    In spite of its lack of value and the harm it does, challenges against the traditional academic organization of the American high school are rare and occur as isolated efforts (Richardson, 2000). As long as the general studies “track” exists, some students who should perceive themselves as college-bound will elect it.

     More certainly, however, high school teachers and counselors who believe they belong there will counsel many poor and minority students into a general studies track. In many high schools, it will continue to serve as a “holding tank” for potential drop-outs (Lee & Burkham, 2003) and for students whose teachers cannot imagine a hopeful, successful adult future for them. It is difficult to imagine how gaps in achievement and outcomes for all students beyond graduation can be improved without addressing this pervasive and systemic issue of curricular inequality.

References

Cohen, E. G. (2000). Equitable classrooms in a changing society.
     In M. T. Hallinan (Ed.), Handbook of the sociology of
     education (pp. 265-283). New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum.

Dornbusch, S. M., Glasgow, K. L., & Lin, I-Chun. (1996). The
     social structure of schooling. Annual Review of Psychology,
     47, 401-429.

Hendrie, C. (2005, March 9). Summit fuels push to improve high
     schools. Education Week, pp. 1, 12-15.

Lee, V. E., & Frank, K. A. (1990). Students’ characteristics
     that facilitate the transfer from two-year to four-year
     colleges. Sociology of Education, 63, 178-193.

Lee, V. E., & Burkham, D. T. (2003). Dropping out of high
     school: The role of school organization and structure.
     American Educational Research Journal, 40, 353-393.

National Commission on the High School Senior Year (NCHSSY).
     (2001, October). Raising our sights: No high school senior
     Left behind. Princeton, N.J.: The Woodrow Wilson National
     Fellowship Foundation.

Oakes, J. (1985). Keeping track: How schools structure
     inequality. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Richardson, J. G. (2000). The variable construction of
     educational risk. In M. T. Hallinan (Ed.), Handbook
     of the sociology of education (pp. 499-525). New York:
     Kluwer Academic/Plenum.

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